Does a car's MOT reliability predict its recorded auction bid?

Median recorded closing bids joined to DVSA reliability data. The bids are unverified as sales and the correlation is weak.

DATA · 5 min read

A question the joined data can explore

This joins DVSA MOT results to UK salvage closing bids recorded when listings end. The bids are not independently confirmed completed sales. It explores whether a model's MOT reliability is associated with its recorded closing bid, without claiming the bid became a sale.

The honest headline: barely

Matched across models with both a median recorded closing bid and a trustworthy MOT pass rate, the correlation is weak. It is computed from the same ended-listing rows behind the free table at /salvage-prices. On the day last checked it stood at r = 0.27 across 172 matched models. Squared, that is just over 7 percent of the variation in median recorded closing bids, and it does not establish causation.

When it does line up

The BMW 2 Series passes first time in 87.9 percent of tests and has one of the highest median recorded salvage closing bids on the site, £4,350 from 14 ended listings (recorded closing-bid data). This is an association in a small sample, not evidence that reliability caused the bid level or that any bid became a sale.

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When it does not, and by a wide margin

The Mini Countryman has an 89.1 percent first-time MOT pass rate and a £550 median recorded closing bid from 11 ended listings (recorded closing-bid data). That combination is one example of why MOT reliability alone does not explain the observed bid level.

The real driver looks like segment, not mechanics

The clearest pattern is not reliability at all, it is what kind of vehicle it is. Our own recorded closing-bid data, grouped by body shape, shows an SUV clears a £725 median from 373 ended listings against a hatchback's £450 from 1,499, a 61 percent gap that has nothing to do with either group's MOT record, it is two different buyer markets pricing two different kinds of usefulness. That is the same effect sitting inside the Countryman result above: it is badged and marketed as a compact SUV but built on a Mini hatchback platform underneath, and the salvage market prices it like the hatchback it actually is, not like the SUV segment its badge implies. Reliability seems to matter far more when you are comparing like with like, body shape held constant, than when you are comparing across shapes.

What this means if you are bidding

Do not assume a model with a poor MOT record is automatically a cheap salvage buy, or that a strong one commands a premium. The site-wide relationship is too weak. Check the specific model, its MOT record, damage, mileage and desirability. Use median recorded closing bids only as market-interest context. Per-lot search remains paused because those bids are not verified sales.

The caveat worth stating plainly

This is a correlation across models with enough ended listings to include, not a controlled experiment. It cannot explain why a specific listing reached its last recorded bid or whether that bid was accepted. The named examples use models with at least 8 ended listings. The result will move as more listings enter the dataset, so treat it as a weak descriptive signal.

See real median recorded closing bid alongside MOT pass rate, by model

Real MOT data for this model

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