Does a car's age affect its MOT pass rate? We checked 32.6 million tests

Pass rates fall as cars age, but not in a straight line. We grouped 2,005 models by registration year and found a dip that recovers for older cars.

MOT DATA · 5 min read

The obvious question our reliability data left open

Our most-and-least-reliable-cars piece ranked models by pass rate but did not control for age, and a big part of why the Renault Clio or Peugeot 307 score badly is simply that a lot of the tested fleet is older. So we grouped every model in the dataset (2,005 models, at least 500 tests each, 32,600,056 tests total) into five bands by average registration year and weighted each band's pass rate by test volume, so bigger models pull the number harder, same method as the original piece.

The five age bands

2018 or newer: 88.8 percent (1,234 models, 3.85 million tests). 2014 to 2017: 78.4 percent (222 models, 11.3 million tests). 2010 to 2013: 73.1 percent (201 models, 14.8 million tests). 2006 to 2009: 69.2 percent (158 models, 2.0 million tests). 2005 or older: 70.8 percent (190 models, 632,870 tests).

It is not a straight line down

Pass rate falls hard and steadily from the newest band down to the 2006-2009 band, which is the low point at 69.2 percent, not the oldest cars. The 2005-or-older band then ticks back up to 70.8 percent, beating the cohort one band younger. That is a real, if modest, reversal, not noise: the sample is over 600,000 tests.

Why the mid-2000s cohort is the weak spot

Cars averaging a 2006 to 2009 registration are old enough to be cheap, high-mileage daily transport bought on a tight budget, but not old enough to have been thinned out to the well-kept survivors that classic and enthusiast ownership tends to produce. The Peugeot 207 (59.8 percent, 137,000 tests) and Mini (68.5 percent, 261,000 tests) sit right in this band. Meanwhile cars averaging 2005 or older that are still being tested at all have usually survived because someone has kept them properly, a Mercedes SL from that era tests at 84.7 percent.

What this means for a salvage buyer

A car's age alone is a weak signal for how well it will test, the specific model and how it has been kept matter more, especially once you are past the 15 to 20 year mark where only the cared-for examples are still on the road at all. Do not write off an older salvage lot purely on registration year. Check the model's own pass rate on our MOT data pages and the individual car's history before pricing repairs.

Run the actual lot through the Analyzer

Age bands describe the fleet, not the specific car in front of you. Paste the Copart lot in, let the Analyzer read the real damage from the photos, and check the reg's own MOT and mileage history free before you decide what it is worth bidding.

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